Turner correctly matched 24 teams with the correct rounds of the picks they received last year. Five other picks he missed by one round. He missed on three other teams, so overall 29 out of 32 is pretty strong.
The NFL has not made its compensatory pick formula public. The picks are normally announced at the NFL owners’ meetings, which are set for March 23-26.
Turner is projecting the Falcons to get four picks.
5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes
7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek
7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens
7 – Atlanta – Luke McCown
Last season, the Falcons lost Grimes (Miami), Vance Walker (Oakland), Svitek (New England), Owens (Cleveland), McCown (New Orleans) and Lawrence Sidbury (Indianapolis).
The Falcons signed Osi Umenyiora and Steven Jackson as free agents in 2013.
Turner says the Falcons situation is pretty murky.
Atlanta has the most variables affecting their situation. As is mentioned above McCown had a low salary and few game snaps, but I believe that he is just over the qualification threshold. Sidbury was signed for a little less, and did not play at all, so he was not counted. It would not matter if he did count, as Atlanta reached their four-pick limit. The Falcons also signed two players coming off of “voidable” deals. Stephen Jackson voided his contract in St. Louis, and the Giants voided their contract with Osi Umenyiora. I treated Jackson as a qualified player because it was not the team’s decision to lose him. Umenyiora’s “voidable” deal was just a way to push money to the future for cap purposes, so I did not reward the team for losing him. If Jackson is not counted, it could give Atlanta another 7th round pick if they have not hit their limit. If Umenyiora counts as a signing, it would likely take away a 7th round pick, but there is a slight chance Atlanta could lose their 5th for Grimes.
The Falcons were awarded four picks last season.
The selected tight end Levine Toilolo with the fourth-round compensatory pick they received last season. They also added safety Kemal Ishmael, safety Zeke Motta and quarterback Sean Renfree in the seventh round.
Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula.